MOSCOW, August 7. /TASS/. The world requires new arms control agreements as nuclear deterrence weakens; NATO’s increased Black Sea presence raises the risk of military incidents; and the Iran-Oman deal on the Strait of Hormuz offers a breakthrough but raises questions. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

The global nuclear arms control system is undergoing a crisis. Experts note that most of the achievements attained in this field so far have largely been undermined, Izvestia reports.

More than 80 years after the August 1945 atomic bombings of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the network of international treaties formed on their ruins is showing major cracks. An increasing number of countries are coming to regard nuclear weapons as the only guarantee of sovereignty, according to Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of Russia's Federation Council, the upper house of parliament.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last remaining agreement limiting the strategic nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States, expired in February 2026. No negotiations on a successor treaty are currently underway, as Washington insists that China also take on nuclear arms control commitments. Beijing has rejected the demand, arguing that its nuclear arsenal is not comparable to those of Russia and the US, while Moscow insists that the British and French capabilities should also be considered.

With negotiations at a standstill, nuclear powers continue to modernize their arsenals. The United States is deploying a new generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. Russia, in turn, is deploying new intercontinental ballistic missiles on combat duty, while China is building additional missile silos and expanding its submarine fleet. Meanwhile, there are no mechanisms left enabling countries to monitor one another’s strategic forces. Russian Academy of Sciences Academician Alexey Arbatov believes that the world is heading into an unconstrained arms race.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, scheduled to take place in Shenzhen, China, in November, could provide an opportunity for dialogue, with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump all expected to attend. However, in Arbatov’s view, no comprehensive talks should be expected to take place, even among the three major nuclear powers, let alone the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, or the Nuclear Five, where the positions of countries are far too divergent. The most realistic outcome would be a joint declaration reaffirming the principle that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.

The North Atlantic Alliance has stationed Spanish F-18M fighter jets and NH-90 helicopters in Romania to monitor the country’s airspace, a source in the Romanian Defense Ministry told Izvestia. Experts believe that the move is primarily aimed at countering unmanned aerial vehicles.

Drones have increasingly been breaching Romania’s airspace, with the latest incident reported on August 2. Bucharest blamed it on Russia, but failed to provide supporting evidence. Moscow remains ready for dialogue but NATO countries continue to disregard Russia’s proposals. Analysts note that the alliance seeks to use drone incidents to justify further expanding its military buildup.

NATO’s air missions are gradually shifting from intercepting and escorting aircraft to providing drone protection. According to Vadim Koroshchupov, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, the shift is connected to the implementation of the Drone Wall initiative, which is expected to become part of NATO’s air defense system.

Russian Air Forces units performing missions in Moscow’s special military operation continue to conduct strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure near Odessa and Izmail, which are located close to Romania. Dangerous encounters have taken place on many occasions. Communication between NATO and Russia has been largely reduced since the launch of Moscow's military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, further worsening the situation. According to political analyst Denis Denisov, the growing possibility of military incidents underscores the need to restore these ties.

NATO’s efforts to strengthen its presence in Romania make it clear that the Black Sea region has become an area of heightened security risks and a potential flashpoint for an unintended military confrontation between Russia and the alliance, alongside the Baltic Sea region and the Arctic.

Meanwhile, the United States and other NATO members continue to expand military assistance to Ukraine in a bid to challenge the perception that Russian forces have developed effective countermeasures against every type of weapon used by Kiev, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes. Ukraine hopes to create its own ballistic missiles in the near future, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has pledged to provide additional missiles and back the establishment of joint missile production with Ukraine.

Iran and Oman have endorsed the key points of a future agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, marking a breakthrough in the prolonged crisis. However, experts interviewed by Izvestia warn that the deal between Tehran and Muscat does not guarantee a full solution. Iran still needs to reach an agreement with the United States, while the two countries continue to perceive the situation differently.

Political scientist Dastan Tokoldoshev believes that the success of the Iran-Oman talks could pave the way for a broader regional settlement, creating a mechanism for a future agreement between Tehran and Washington. He added, however, that Iran was well aware of the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a long-term tool of influence over its regional and international opponents. This is particularly significant because the agreement will in fact give Tehran control over all ships passing through the waterway.

In the expert’s view, the failure of previous rounds of peace consultations has likely convinced Iran of the need to pursue its interests without offering concessions to the United States. As a result, Tehran is unwilling to reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately in response to Washington’s demands.

Political analyst Advan Hisham believes the US may abandon previous agreements in order to maintain pressure on Iran and avoid recognizing Tehran’s right to control the Strait of Hormuz, even if such an approach damages the image of Washington's regional allies. He noted that the United States had on several occasions withdrawn unilaterally from agreements related to shipping through the waterway.

In Hisham’s view, nothing prevents US President Donald Trump from declaring the agreement invalid, particularly because Washington opposes any payments to Tehran, regardless of whether such fees are symbolic or voluntary. The expert added that even if Oman sought to challenge the US position and uphold the deal with Iran, it would hardly be able to effectively resist Washington.

All of this is creating "a band of uncertainty" around efforts to resolve the conflict in the Middle East.

A free trade agreement between Pakistan and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could enable exporters from the bloc’s member states to establish new logistics routes and gain access to ports on the Arabian Sea, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reports.

Pakistan’s Ambassador to Moscow Faisal Niaz Tirmizi said earlier that Islamabad intends to conclude a free trade agreement with the EAEU. The process could take several months to one or two years, the envoy noted.

There is significant potential to increase imports of Pakistani textile products, rice, and medical and surgical instruments. In turn, EAEU exports could include a wide range of goods, including agricultural raw materials, food products, fertilizers, steel, chemical products, coal, pulp and paper products, agricultural machinery, energy equipment, and medicines.

"Pakistan is a rapidly growing South Asian market with a population of more than 250 million people. A free trade agreement could give economic actors from EAEU member states access to ports on the Arabian Sea, creating new logistics routes," said Oleg Ivanov, senior lecturer at the Department of International Business at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

"For Russia and the EAEU, Pakistan could become a major priority in South Asia, particularly amid the development of transport corridors, settlements in national currencies, and cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization," Sergey Katyrin, president of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, emphasized.

Pakistan’s share of the EAEU’s trade currently accounts for about 0.06%. On the one hand, this low starting point reflects the lack of stable production, logistics and supply ties, but on the other hand, it offers significant room for growth, said Nikita Pyzhikov, head of the Economic Integration Center at the National Academy of Foreign Trade under Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development.

Gas reserves in European underground storage sites are at their lowest level on record for this time of year since monitoring began in 2011. Facilities currently hold about 63 billion cubic meters of gas, and 37 billion cubic meters more are needed to reach the target of 90%, RBC reports.

Europe is preparing for the winter season amid global disruptions to gas supplies from the Middle East due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade caused by the conflict between the United States and Iran. Meanwhile, further sanctions on Russia are expected. A ban on the import of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) under long-term contracts is set to take effect on January 1, 2027, while restrictions on pipeline gas imports will come into force on September 30, 2027.

The European Union relies mainly on LNG and pipeline supplies to meet its gas needs, Alexander Rukavitsyn, senior consultant at the Russian Energy Ministry’s Analytical Center for the Energy Industry, said. Norway is Europe’s largest supplier of pipeline gas, followed by Algeria, Russia and Azerbaijan. According to Sergey Selin, market analytics director at the Siala quantitative information agency, the United States is the EU’s largest LNG supplier, with Russia still ranking second. That said, Selin believes that if the EU faces difficulties during the heating season, it could once again postpone its ban on Russian gas imports.

When preparing for the winter season, the EU’s main vulnerability in recent years has been its need to compete globally for LNG during periods of high demand. This year, the situation has become more complex due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Record heat has further hindered efforts to refill European gas storage facilities, increasing demand for gas used in power generation. Experts doubt the EU will achieve its 90% storage target before the heating season begins.

Depending on the pace of gas injections in the fall, storage levels could vary between 72% and 81%, Selin said. In his view, Europe is unlikely to face physical gas shortages this winter, as it has sufficient capacity to import gas and regasify LNG. However, higher prices remain the main concern.

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